Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran — the system of government that has ruled Iran since 1979 — completely collapses or is replaced before July 2026. A Yes means the regime is gone: the Supreme Leader's office, the clerical councils, and the Revolutionary Guards no longer run the country, replaced by something fundamentally different. A No means the Islamic Republic is still standing in some recognizable form, even if weakened, reformed, or led by new faces. To settle as Yes, there must be a clear, broadly reported break — a new provisional government, a revolutionary council, or a new constitutional order that replaces the Islamic Republic's core structures. Elections, internal reshuffles, or even a partial military coup that leaves the clerical system intact do not count. The regime must genuinely lose control over most of the Iranian population. If that hasn't happened by June 30, 2026, it resolves No — and given the bar is extremely high, ambiguous situations would almost certainly land as No. The most relevant recent news is significant: multiple reports from early June 2026 indicate Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump publicly said the U.S. 'must respond.' This points to a sharp escalation between Iran and the United States. Whether this leads to strikes on Iran, broader conflict, or de-escalation is not yet clear — but events like this are exactly the kind of external pressure that could affect regime stability, making this market more live than it was before. At 2%, the market is treating this as highly unlikely — but not impossible, which is the honest position. The main uncertainty is not two equal sides debating it; it's simply whether a low-probability but real scenario unfolds in the next few weeks. The recent U.S.-Iran military confrontation adds genuine volatility. Regime collapse is historically rare and fast when it happens — but Iran's security apparatus is deeply entrenched, and the criteria demand a total, unambiguous break, not just a crisis. The biggest unknown right now is how the U.S.-Iran standoff evolves.

The odds right now

• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?-1.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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