Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

What you need to know

This market asks a two-part question: first, did the U.S. carry out real military strikes on Iran, and second, did Iran's government survive them? A Yes means both things happened — the U.S. struck Iran and the Islamic Republic is still standing and in power by June 30, 2026. A No means either the strikes never happened, or the regime collapsed as a result of them (or before them). So this isn't just asking 'will Iran be struck?' — it's asking 'will Iran be struck AND still be governed by its current leadership?' For this to resolve Yes, two conditions must both be true by June 30, 2026. First, confirmed U.S. military force — actual missiles, aircraft, or naval weapons — must have hit Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory. Cyber attacks and sanctions don't count. Second, Iran's core ruling structures — the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, the IRGC under clerical command — must still be functioning and in control of most of the country. A leadership change that keeps those structures intact doesn't count as collapse. If the regime falls before any U.S. strike even happens, the market immediately resolves No. Recent news is highly relevant here. Multiple reports from June 11, 2026 indicate that the U.S. military is actively conducting strikes on Iranian targets, with officials citing 'continued and unwarranted aggression.' Trump has publicly confirmed further strikes are planned. This means the first condition — confirmed U.S. military action — appears to already be met based on available reporting. What remains open is whether the Iranian government survives these strikes with its core institutions intact through the end of June. The market is priced at 98% Yes, which reflects the fact that U.S. strikes appear to have already begun, leaving only one real question: does the Islamic Republic collapse before June 30? Historically, governments — even severely weakened ones — rarely fall within weeks of airstrikes alone. The main uncertainty is the low-probability but real possibility of a sudden, dramatic collapse: a military coup, mass desertion of state institutions, or a revolutionary breakdown. The resolution criteria also set a very high bar for what counts as 'collapse,' which makes a No outcome even harder to reach.

The odds right now

• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?+0.2 pts (1w)99%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

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