Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether a senior US official will officially confirm that aliens — or technology made by aliens — are real, before the end of 2026. A Yes means someone like the President, a Cabinet secretary, a top military general, or a federal agency makes a clear, definitive public statement that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. A No means that statement never comes, and the year ends without it. Vague hints, congressional hearings, or unidentified aerial phenomenon reports would not be enough — it has to be a definitive confirmation. The market settles as Yes only if a very specific group of people — the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a US federal agency — makes a definitive statement that extraterrestrial life or technology is real, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. 'Definitive' is the key word: cautious language, speculation, or 'we're investigating' does not count. The market will look first at official government sources, but credible news consensus can also be used to confirm it happened. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline given — about a political development in Nepal — has no connection to US government disclosure of extraterrestrial life. The kind of news that would genuinely matter here would be a major official US government statement, a congressional hearing with definitive findings, or a credible report of a federal agency announcement about alien life or technology. The core difficulty is that this would be one of the most extraordinary announcements in human history, and governments have historically been extremely cautious — or silent — on this topic. The word 'definitively' in the criteria sets a very high bar; officials have discussed UAPs (unidentified aerial phenomena) for years without crossing it. The market prices the full-year version at just 14%, reflecting how rare such a statement would be. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unprecedented and unexpected happens — not a genuine two-sided debate.

The odds right now

• December 31-2.0 pts (1w)14%
• September 30-2.0 pts (1w)6%
• June 30-0.6 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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