Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the United States will formally take control of Greenland — currently a self-governing territory belonging to Denmark — before the end of 2026. A Yes means the US and Denmark would reach an official, legal agreement to transfer Greenland's sovereignty to the US, making it a US state, territory, or similar. A No means that doesn't happen, regardless of how much Trump talks about wanting it. The market settles Yes only if there is an official, documented agreement — like a signed treaty, executive order, or legislation — between the US and Denmark (and likely Greenland itself) confirming the sovereignty transfer before December 31, 2026. Trump posting about it on social media does not count. Importantly, the actual physical handover doesn't need to be complete — just a formal, signed announcement of the deal is enough to trigger a Yes. None of the recent news provided is relevant to Greenland. The headlines cover Iran-US negotiations and Israeli politics. There is no recent news here about Greenland, Denmark, or any sovereignty talks. The kind of development that would matter: an official statement from Copenhagen or Nuuk, a diplomatic meeting specifically about Greenland's status, or a formal US government proposal. The market prices this at around 6%, meaning it is considered very unlikely — but not impossible. The core difficulty is that Denmark and Greenland have both firmly and repeatedly rejected the idea of a sale or transfer. No country voluntarily gives up territory without extraordinary circumstances. Even if Trump pushed hard, the legal and diplomatic steps required are enormous and would take time. The main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something truly unexpected happens — not a balanced two-sided debate.

The odds right now

• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?-0.4 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

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