Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a military program to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is one of the world's most critical shipping routes for oil and goods. Project Freedom was a past U.S. initiative that did exactly that. A Yes means the U.S. makes a formal announcement to restart it or launch something equivalent. A No means no such announcement happens before the end of June 2026. This settles Yes the moment Trump, the U.S. government, or U.S. military makes a definitive public announcement — either naming 'Project Freedom' specifically, or announcing any equivalent escort program in the Strait of Hormuz. Crucially, the announcement alone is enough; the program does not have to actually start. But vague hints, reported planning, or expressions of interest do not count — only a clear, official commitment qualifies. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The most directly relevant headline is Trump saying Tehran will 'pay the price' for stalled talks, suggesting ongoing tension with Iran — the country whose waters border the Strait of Hormuz. This kind of diplomatic pressure is the backdrop against which a military escort program would make sense. The other headlines about India-U.S. ties and unrelated topics do not meaningfully bear on this question. Worth watching: any escalation in Strait of Hormuz shipping incidents or direct U.S.-Iran announcements. The market is priced at 94%, meaning it is heavily tilted toward Yes — so the real question is not whether this is likely, but whether something unexpected blocks it. The main risks are a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with Iran that removes the need, a policy reversal, or the deadline arriving before a formal announcement is made. The resolution bar is also specific: only a definitive official statement qualifies, not leaks or hints. That precision adds a small but real chance of a technicality pushing this to No.

The odds right now

• June 30+74.6 pts (1w)95%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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