Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Ukraine will formally agree — through a diplomatic deal — to hand over military control of its remaining major cities in the Donbas region before the end of 2026. The key cities named are Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. A Yes means Ukraine signs away control of those cities in a negotiated agreement. A No means no such deal happens — whether because talks fail, stall, or the war simply continues without a formal settlement. This resolves Yes only if a signed, publicly confirmed diplomatic agreement requires Ukraine to give up military control of all five listed cities before December 31, 2026. Ukraine does not have to formally surrender its legal claim to the land — just agree to pull its forces out, similar to how Yugoslavia handled Kosovo in 1999. One important edge case: if Russia captures those cities by force on the battlefield, that does NOT count as a Yes. The deal must come through negotiation, not conquest. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market — they cover Indian economic policy and unrelated diplomatic topics. There is no recent news here to point to. What would matter to watch for: any announced ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, signals from Ukrainian leadership about territorial concessions, or involvement of major mediating powers in peace negotiations. The market prices this at just 9%, reflecting how far such a deal seems from reality today. Ukraine has consistently refused to formally cede territory, and no peace framework close to these terms is publicly on the table. That said, wars can shift quickly — pressure from allies, battlefield losses, or a surprise diplomatic push could change the picture. The main uncertainty is not a balanced two-sided debate; it is simply whether something unexpected and dramatic happens before the end of 2026.

The odds right now

• Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?+2.0 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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