World Cup: Group D Last Place

What you need to know

This market asks which team will finish in last place — fourth out of four — in Group D of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. In a World Cup group, four teams each play three games, and the one with the worst record at the end goes home with the wooden spoon. A Yes on Paraguay means Paraguay finishes bottom of the group; a Yes on Australia means Australia does; and so on. Türkiye finishing last is currently seen as much less likely by the market. The market settles on whichever team ranks fourth in Group D after all group-stage games are played, expected between June 11–27, 2026. FIFA's official standings determine the result — and if two teams are tied at the bottom, FIFA's own tiebreaker rules (goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record, etc.) decide it. One important edge case: if the group stage is cancelled or has no official bottom-place team declared by July 11, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than any named team. None of the provided news headlines relate to the 2026 World Cup or Group D. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be team injury reports, early group-stage match results once play begins in June 2026, or any surprising lineup or form news from Paraguay, Australia, or Türkiye in the lead-up to the tournament. Three teams are genuinely close in this market — Paraguay at 47%, Australia at 44%, and Türkiye at 9% — meaning even the two frontrunners are nearly neck and neck. The group's full composition matters enormously, but the other teams in Group D could vary widely in strength. Soccer group stages are also famously unpredictable: injuries, referee decisions, and scheduling quirks all shift outcomes. The near-even split between Paraguay and Australia reflects real uncertainty, not a clear favorite to finish last.

The odds right now

• Paraguay+23.5 pts (1w)50%
• Australia-1.0 pts (1w)43%
• Türkiye-7.5 pts (1w)7%
• USA-11.9 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last place of Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie for bottom of the group, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no bottom-place team declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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