World Cup: Group F Last Place

What you need to know

This market is asking which team will finish in last place — fourth out of four — in Group F of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. Every World Cup group has four teams that each play three matches; the team with the fewest points at the end finishes last and is eliminated. A Yes on Tunisia means Tunisia ends up at the bottom of the group standings; Yes on Sweden or Netherlands means one of them does instead. The market settles based on the official final standings of Group F after all group-stage matches are played, which are scheduled to wrap up by June 27, 2026. If two or more teams are tied at the bottom, FIFA's official tiebreaker rules decide it — things like goal difference or head-to-head results. One important edge case: if the group stage is cancelled or delayed past July 11, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other' instead of any team. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market — they cover a warehouse fire, civil unrest, and a US deportation story. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be team injury reports, group-stage draw confirmations, or any news about a team's form heading into the tournament. The market is heavily one-sided, with Tunisia priced around 84%, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens. Tunisia is generally ranked lower than Sweden and the Netherlands on the world stage, which explains the gap. But football matches are unpredictable — injuries, tactical surprises, or a single bad result can change everything. The group draw also matters: the strength of opponents affects everyone's chances, and small margins in the group stage can flip final standings entirely.

The odds right now

• Tunisia+33.5 pts (1w)85%
• Netherlands+2.9 pts (1w)11%
• Japan-11.5 pts (1w)5%
• Sweden-20.1 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last place of Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie for bottom of the group, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no bottom-place team declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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