World Cup: No. of Matches Decided by Penalty Shootout

What you need to know

This market is asking how many games at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be settled by a penalty shootout — the tiebreaker where players take turns kicking at the goal. The three tiers here are: at least 1 shootout, at least 2, and at least 3. A 'Yes' on any tier means the tournament reached that number; a 'No' means it fell short. Only knockout-round games count, since group-stage games can end in a draw with no shootout needed. Each tier resolves Yes if the total number of shootouts in the 2026 World Cup's knockout stage hits or passes that number by the end of the tournament (July 20, 2026). FIFA's official records are the source of truth. One important edge case: if the tournament is cancelled or postponed past August 2, 2026, all tiers resolve No — even if some games were already played. If the tournament is just shortened (but not cancelled), completed matches still count. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. There are no reports about the tournament's structure, scheduling, or knockout-stage results to point to. The thing to watch for as the tournament approaches would be any news about the knockout-stage bracket and individual match results — specifically any games that go to extra time, since those are the ones that can lead to a shootout. At 95–100%, the market sees 1–2 shootouts as nearly certain, and that tracks with history — the World Cup knockout stage almost always produces multiple shootouts. The mild uncertainty around '3+' (priced at 93%) reflects that while it's common, it's not guaranteed: if many knockout games are settled in regular or extra time, the total could land at exactly 2. The honest unknown is simply how many close, deadlocked knockout matches actually occur — something nobody can predict until the games are played.

The odds right now

• 1+ matches100%
• 2+ matches95%
• 3+ matches93%
• 4+ matches90%
• 5+ matches81%
• 6+ matches56%
• 7+ matches40%
• 8+ matches34%
• 9+ matches21%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of matches decided by a penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A match is counted if it proceeds to a penalty shootout to determine the result. Only knockout-stage matches can be decided by shootout. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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