World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

What you need to know

This market is asking how many penalty kicks during the 2026 FIFA World Cup will fail to score — either because a player shoots wide or high, or because the goalkeeper saves it. There are three separate yes/no questions stacked together: will there be at least 5 missed in-game penalties, at least 10, or at least 15? Crucially, penalty shootouts at the end of knockout games don't count — only penalties awarded during the actual flow of the match matter here. Each threshold resolves Yes if the total count of in-game missed or saved penalties reaches that number by the end of the tournament. 'In-game' means regular time, stoppage time, or extra time — not the shootout after extra time. The count comes from official FIFA data or a consensus of reliable sports reporting, and must be confirmed by August 2, 2026. If the tournament is cancelled or significantly delayed past that date, all three markets automatically resolve No regardless of how many had already occurred. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins in June 2026, so the relevant thing to watch for as the tournament approaches is VAR usage trends — since video review technology has historically led to more in-game penalties being awarded, which in turn creates more opportunities for misses. The biggest unknown is simply how many in-game penalties get awarded across 104 matches — that number varies a lot from tournament to tournament depending on referee tendencies and VAR decisions. The 2026 World Cup is expanded to 48 teams, meaning more matches than ever before, which pushes the count up. The market prices 5+ at 81% (seen as fairly likely) and 15+ at only 17% (seen as a stretch). The main uncertainty is that penalties are rare, somewhat random events, and no one can predict exactly how referees will call fouls in the box.

The odds right now

• 5+ missed penalties81%
• 10+ missed penalties37%
• 15+ missed penalties17%
• 20+ missed penalties10%
• 25+ missed penalties4%
• 30+ missed penalties2%
• 40+ missed penalties2%
• 35+ missed penalties1%
• 45+ missed penalties1%
• 50+ missed penalties1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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