10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Prediction markets place this event in the extreme tail of possibility: the heaviest concentration of volume sits firmly on 'No', with only a very small share of the market backing a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring anywhere on Earth before the end of 2026. No earthquake of that magnitude has ever been recorded in human history. Resolution is determined by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with a deadline of 31 December 2026.

Market structure

This is a binary Yes/No market with a single qualifying condition: one or more earthquakes of magnitude 10.0 or above recorded anywhere on Earth between 8 December 2025 and 31 December 2026. Volume is heavily concentrated on 'No'. The resolution source is the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A 24-hour revision window applies after any qualifying event is registered. A fallback deadline of 31 January 2027 exists if a qualifying event is disputed or delayed in appearing on the USGS record.

Background

The largest earthquake ever recorded was the 1960 Valdivia earthquake in Chile, which reached a magnitude of 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale. A magnitude 10.0 event would release approximately 31 times more energy than that. The moment magnitude scale is logarithmic, meaning each whole-number increase represents a tenfold increase in ground motion amplitude and roughly 31.6 times more energy released. Seismologists have theorised that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake would require a rupture length of several thousand kilometres — longer than any known fault system. The question of whether Earth's tectonic structure can physically produce such an event remains a subject of scientific debate, though no consensus supports its near-term occurrence.

Key factors

The primary structural constraint on resolution is geological: no fault system currently identified by seismologists is believed capable of producing a sustained rupture of the length required to generate a magnitude 10.0 event. The most seismically active zones — the Cascadia subduction zone, the Japan Trench, the Aleutian megathrust, and the South American subduction zone — have upper magnitude estimates well below 10.0 based on their physical dimensions. However, magnitude estimates for very large earthquakes can be revised upward in the hours and days following an event, as the USGS and other agencies process seismic data; the market's 24-hour revision window accounts for this. Resolution also depends on the USGS publishing its final magnitude assessment within the specified timeframe. If a very large earthquake occurs near the deadline, the fallback extension to 31 January 2027 provides additional time for the scientific record to settle.

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