2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

Resolution Criteria

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

The Kuomintang (KMT) is the heavily-backed favourite to win the most local government seats in Taiwan's November 2026 elections, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) drawing considerably lower but still notable support. The market resolves on which party's officially nominated candidates win the greatest number of mayoral and magistrate races across Taiwan's 22 listed cities, special municipalities, and counties. Resolution is based on official results from the Central Election Commission, with elections scheduled for 28 November 2026.

Market structure

The market covers 22 local government contests across Taiwan's special municipalities, cities, and counties. Volume is heavily concentrated on the KMT, with the DPP a distant second and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) drawing minimal backing. Resolution is determined by which officially nominated party candidates win the most races in total, per the Central Election Commission. A tie-breaking rule applies alphabetically. The resolution deadline is 28 November 2026, with a fallback cut-off of 30 June 2027.

Background

Taiwan holds unified local elections every four years, with the next cycle scheduled for 28 November 2026. These elections determine the heads of Taiwan's six special municipalities, three cities, and thirteen counties — positions that govern the daily lives of the vast majority of Taiwan's 23 million people. The KMT won a commanding majority of local races in the 2022 elections, capturing key northern and central strongholds, while the DPP retained control of southern cities including Tainan and Kaohsiung. The 2022 result was widely interpreted as a rebuke of the then-governing DPP. Taiwan's local elections are closely watched internationally as a barometer of public sentiment on cross-strait relations, economic policy, and the island's democratic health.

Key factors

The KMT's performance in 2022 gives it a significant incumbency base across multiple municipalities and counties, which can advantage defending candidates through name recognition and local government resources. However, incumbency effects vary considerably between Taiwan's urban and rural constituencies. The DPP retains strong structural advantages in the south, particularly Tainan and Kaohsiung, where its candidates have won successive cycles. The TPP, founded in 2019, has yet to demonstrate consistent local election strength despite its presidential-level performance. Candidate selection by each party — including whether popular independents align with or defect from major parties — will shape individual race outcomes. National political conditions, including the state of cross-strait relations and any major domestic policy controversies in the lead-up to November 2026, may influence swings across competitive constituencies. Voter turnout patterns in urban versus rural areas also historically affect the seat distribution between the two major parties.

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