2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Resolution Criteria

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The 2027 French presidential election ballot market tracks which individuals will appear on the official first-round candidate list, published by the French Constitutional Council ahead of the April 2027 vote. Across 46 tracked outcomes, volume is heavily concentrated on a small cluster of established political figures, with Édouard Philippe and Jordan Bardella among the heaviest-backed to appear. The market resolves against the Constitutional Council's official candidate list, expected by mid-April 2027.

Market structure

The market covers 46 individual 'Yes/No' outcomes, each asking whether a named person will appear on the official first-round ballot. Volume is unevenly distributed: a handful of outcomes attract strong consensus, while the majority sit at low implied confidence. Resolution source is the French Constitutional Council's official candidate list. The deadline is 17 April 2027, with a fallback to actual ballot appearance if no list is published, and a final 'No' resolution if the election does not occur by 30 June 2027.

Background

France holds its presidential election every five years under a two-round system. The first round typically features a large field of candidates, but qualifying for the ballot requires each aspirant to obtain 500 sponsorship signatures from elected officials — a filter that historically eliminates many prospective candidates. The Constitutional Council then validates the list and publishes it officially. The 2022 election featured twelve first-round candidates. The 2027 cycle opens against a backdrop of political fragmentation, with the centre, right, far-right, and left all fielding competing figures. Emmanuel Macron is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, meaning 2027 will produce an open field without an incumbent seeking re-election for the first time since 2012, generating heightened uncertainty across the political spectrum.

Key factors

The 500-signature threshold is the primary filter: a candidate may be prominent in polling or media coverage yet fail to secure sufficient sponsorship from mayors, departmental councillors, and other qualifying elected officials. Party endorsements, internal primaries, and coalition negotiations on the left and right will each determine whether multiple candidates from the same political family fragment the field or consolidate behind a single figure. Legal eligibility is a separate factor — any candidate under judicial proceedings that result in civic ineligibility would be removed from the list by the Constitutional Council. The timing of candidacy declarations also matters: some individuals may be widely discussed as potential candidates but ultimately decline to stand, while others may enter the race late. Coalition dynamics, particularly on the fractured left, could produce surprise withdrawals or late entries that shift market volume significantly in the months preceding the Constitutional Council's publication deadline.

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