9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Prediction markets place the chance of a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake occurring anywhere on Earth before the end of 2026 at a small minority of volume, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events in any given year. The market covers a window from December 2025 through 31 December 2026, resolved using USGS data. Volume is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome, with 'Yes' representing a thin tail of market activity.

Market structure

This is a binary market with two outcomes: 'Yes' (a magnitude 9.0 or above earthquake occurs before 1 January 2027) and 'No' (it does not). Volume is heavily concentrated on 'No', with 'Yes' occupying a small tail. Resolution is determined by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program significant earthquake list. A 24-hour revision window applies after any qualifying event is recorded. The market may remain open until 31 January 2027 if a candidate event requires USGS confirmation.

Background

Earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or above are among the rarest and most destructive geological events on Earth. Since reliable global seismic monitoring began in the mid-twentieth century, fewer than ten such events have been recorded. The most recent include the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake in Japan and the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, both of which caused catastrophic loss of life and triggered major tsunamis. The 1960 Valdivia earthquake in Chile remains the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake. These events occur almost exclusively along subduction zones — tectonic boundaries where one plate is driven beneath another — concentrated in the Pacific Ring of Fire and parts of the eastern Indian Ocean. The window covered by this market spans roughly 13 months, a short interval by geological standards, though major seismic events can occur without warning.

Key factors

The primary structural factor is the base rate of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes: historical records suggest they occur on average roughly once every decade to fifteen years, though clustering and long gaps both appear in the record. The absence of such an event in recent years does not statistically elevate near-term probability, as seismic recurrence is not governed by a regular cycle. The regions most exposed to this magnitude threshold are Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, the Pacific Northwest coast of North America, Japan and the Kuril Islands, the Cascadia subduction zone, and the Sunda Trench region of Southeast Asia. Scientific monitoring of strain accumulation along these subduction zones provides context but not near-term predictive precision. Resolution also depends on the USGS magnitude assignment, which can be revised in the 24-hour window following an event — a relevant contingency if an earthquake initially recorded near the threshold is later adjusted up or down. Extended confirmation, with the fallback deadline of 31 January 2027, covers scenarios where a borderline event requires additional seismological review.

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