Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Prediction market trading on Anthropic's IPO closing market capitalisation is overwhelmingly concentrated on the highest bracket, with the '600B+' outcome the heaviest-backed by a substantial margin. A smaller but meaningful share of volume is placed on 'No IPO by December 31, 2027', while all lower valuation brackets attract only minimal interest. The market resolves based on Anthropic's official first-day closing market capitalisation, with a deadline of 31 December 2027.

Market structure

Seven outcomes are available: six market capitalisation brackets ranging from under 100B to 600B and above, plus a 'No IPO by December 31, 2027' outcome. Volume is heavily concentrated on the top bracket (600B+), with the no-IPO outcome as a distant second. All intermediate brackets attract negligible volume. Resolution uses the primary exchange's official first-day closing price. If no IPO occurs by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the no-IPO outcome.

Background

Anthropic, the AI safety company founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers including Dario and Daniela Amodei, has grown into one of the most highly valued private technology companies in the world. Its Claude family of large language models competes directly with OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. The company has raised tens of billions of dollars from investors including Amazon and Google, with private valuations in recent funding rounds placing the company well into the hundreds of billions of dollars. As AI investment has surged, Anthropic has become a focal point for speculation about which major AI-native companies will pursue public listings, and at what valuations, during what many analysts describe as a pivotal period for the sector.

Key factors

The most significant structural factor is whether Anthropic chooses to pursue an IPO at all within the resolution window. The company remains heavily funded through private channels, reducing urgency for a public listing. Broader IPO market conditions — including interest rate environment, investor appetite for high-growth technology names, and the performance of comparable listings — would influence both timing and opening valuation. Anthropic's revenue trajectory, competitive positioning against OpenAI and Google DeepMind, and any shifts in the regulatory landscape for frontier AI models could all affect how public markets price the company at listing. The concentration of volume on the 600B+ bracket reflects private-market reference points, but public market pricing at IPO can diverge substantially from prior private valuations depending on market sentiment at the time of listing. Circuit breaker or trading interruption provisions in the resolution criteria introduce a contingency if the first trading session is abbreviated.

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