Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aziz Akhannouch ceases to be Prime Minister of Morocco for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aziz Akhannouch's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Aziz Akhannouch and the government of Morocco; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction market trading on whether Aziz Akhannouch will leave the role of Prime Minister of Morocco by 31 December 2026 is heavily concentrated on a 'No' outcome, meaning the heaviest-backed position is that he remains in office through the end of 2026. The market resolves 'Yes' immediately upon any credible announcement of his resignation, removal, or effective prevention from carrying out his duties. Resolution relies on official Moroccan government sources or a consensus of credible reporting.

Market structure

This is a binary market with a single tracked outcome — whether Akhannouch departs the role by 31 December 2026. Trading is heavily concentrated on one side, indicating a strong market consensus around continuity in office. Resolution is triggered immediately upon a qualifying announcement, regardless of when any departure formally takes effect. The resolution source is official Moroccan government communications, with credible international reporting serving as a fallback.

Background

Aziz Akhannouch has served as Prime Minister of Morocco since October 2021, following his Rassemblement National des Indépendants (RNI) party's victory in the September 2021 parliamentary elections. A prominent businessman and longstanding political figure, he leads a three-party coalition government. Morocco's next scheduled parliamentary elections are due in 2026, making the question of his continuation in office particularly relevant. The country is simultaneously managing a high-profile co-hosting role for the 2030 FIFA World Cup alongside Portugal and Spain, a project closely associated with the current government's infrastructure and economic agenda.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on this market. The timing of Morocco's 2026 parliamentary elections is central: if elections produce a result requiring a new coalition or a different prime ministerial nominee, Akhannouch would be replaced through a constitutional process. A significant loss for the RNI or a breakdown in the coalition could trigger that outcome before December 2026. Separately, any political scandal, health event, royal intervention, or internal party shift could alter his position. Morocco's constitutional framework gives the King significant formal authority over government composition, meaning changes can occur outside the normal electoral cycle. The 2030 World Cup preparations add a stabilising incentive for governmental continuity, but infrastructure and economic pressures could also generate political friction. Regional and international dynamics, including Morocco's relationships with the EU, the Gulf states, and its position on the Western Sahara issue, could introduce external pressures that affect the government's stability.

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