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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026·$276.6k 24h vol·geopolitics
133 comments·$4.0M total volume·Open for 84 days

September 30

28%+8.0%
OutcomeYesNo
September 30
June 22
June 30
June 15

Order Book

September 30

PriceSharesTotal
42.0¢396$166
41.0¢381$156
40.0¢870$348
38.0¢105$40
37.0¢250$93
35.0¢200$70
33.0¢5.1k$1.7k
32.0¢3.0k$967
31.0¢200$62
30.0¢180$54
29.0¢last trade
4.0¢ spread
26.0¢259$67
25.0¢80$20
24.0¢582$140
23.0¢1.2k$274
22.0¢4.7k$1.0k
21.0¢10.2k$2.2k
20.0¢4.0k$800
19.0¢5.0k$950
15.0¢3.1k$467
12.0¢350$42
$5.9k bids$3.6k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

September 30

28%