Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction markets place the chance of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceasing to be President of Türkiye before 31 December 2026 at a small minority position, with volume heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome. The market covers any departure — resignation, removal, detention, or being permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties — between creation and the deadline. Resolution is based on official Turkish government communications or a consensus of credible reporting.

Market structure

This is a binary market with two outcomes: Erdoğan leaves the presidency before 31 December 2026, or he does not. Volume is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome, with the 'Yes' position commanding a small minority share. Resolution triggers include resignation, formal removal, detention, or any circumstance that permanently prevents Erdoğan from fulfilling presidential duties. An announcement of departure resolves the market immediately, regardless of when the departure takes effect.

Background

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has held executive power in Türkiye since 2003, first as Prime Minister and, following a constitutional referendum in 2017, as an executive president under a system that significantly expanded presidential authority. He won re-election in May 2023 after a competitive two-round contest, securing a term that runs until 2028. Türkiye is a NATO member state with a complex political landscape shaped by ongoing tensions between government and opposition, pressure on civil society, and a history of institutional instability including a failed coup attempt in July 2016. Erdoğan's consolidation of power over two decades has made dramatic political transitions less structurally straightforward than in parliamentary systems, though Türkiye's history includes periods of significant political turbulence.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on this market. Erdoğan's current presidential term runs constitutionally to 2028, meaning voluntary departure before 2027 would require resignation or a constitutional crisis. The Turkish military's formal role in politics has diminished significantly since the post-2016 purges, reducing the historic pathway of coup-driven removal. Health-related speculation has appeared in international media at various points, though no confirmed medical condition has been officially disclosed. Opposition political pressure, while present, operates within a legal and institutional environment that limits its ability to force early departure. External shocks — economic crises, geopolitical events, or significant internal unrest — could alter the political calculus, but the resolution criteria require actual cessation of the presidency, not merely political pressure or diminished authority. Any qualifying event would need to be confirmed by official Turkish government sources or a consensus of credible international reporting.

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