How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Prediction markets show volume most heavily concentrated in the 300,000–500,000 range for ICE removals in fiscal year 2026, with the 400,000–500,000 band attracting the greatest share of trading activity. The market spans ten outcome brackets from under 200,000 to over one million removals. Resolution will be based on the official FY 2026 ICE Annual Report, with a fallback to another credible source if that report is not published by 28 February 2027.

Market structure

Ten outcome brackets run from under 200,000 to over one million non-citizen removals by ICE in fiscal year 2026. Volume is heavily concentrated in the mid-range brackets, with the 300,000–500,000 corridor accounting for the bulk of trading activity and the 400,000–500,000 bracket the single heaviest-backed outcome. The primary resolution source is the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report; if unpublished by 28 February 2027, an alternative credible source will be used. The resolution deadline is 31 December 2026.

Background

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removed 271,484 non-citizens in fiscal year 2024, a figure that serves as the baseline for this market. The Trump administration has made large-scale immigration enforcement a defining policy priority of its second term, with senior officials publicly stating ambitions that significantly exceed recent removal totals. Enforcement operations in the early months of the administration drew extensive media coverage and legal challenges. Historically, annual ICE removal figures have ranged from around 200,000 to a peak of approximately 410,000 in fiscal year 2012 under the Obama administration. The question of whether the current administration can substantially exceed that record shapes the structure of this market, which extends to brackets well above any previously recorded annual total.

Key factors

Several structural variables will influence where the final removal count lands. Operational capacity — including detention bed space, immigration court processing rates, and available flight resources for repatriation — places a practical ceiling on throughput regardless of political intent. Bilateral cooperation agreements with receiving countries are essential; nations that refuse or slow acceptance of deportation flights directly constrain removal numbers. Legal challenges to enforcement programmes, including court injunctions on specific operations or categories of deportee, could interrupt or delay removals. Congressional appropriations for ICE detention and removal operations will affect staffing and logistical capacity throughout the fiscal year. The fiscal year 2026 runs from 1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026, meaning enforcement conditions in both late 2025 and through autumn 2026 will feed into the final figure. Any significant shift in administration priorities, judicial rulings on due-process requirements, or changes in migration patterns at the border could alter the trajectory of removals in either direction.

FAQ