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Israel military action against Damascus by...?

Israel military action against Damascus by...?

Resolves Jun 30, 2026·$77 24h vol·geopolitics
32 comments·$183.9k total volume·Open for 270 days

June 30

10%-28.0%
OutcomeYesNo
June 30

Order Book

June 30

PriceSharesTotal
62.0¢468$290
61.0¢349$213
45.0¢88$40
44.0¢18$8
22.0¢8$2
21.0¢11$2
20.0¢8$2
19.0¢100$19
15.0¢140$21
14.0¢100$14
87.0¢last trade
8.0¢ spread
6.0¢181$11
5.0¢35$2
4.0¢50$2
3.0¢286$9
2.0¢1.2k$24
1.0¢1.9k$20
$67 bids$610 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.

June 30

10%