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Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$135 24h vol·geopolitics
979 comments·$4.1M total volume·Open for 274 days

December 31

20%-27.0%
OutcomeYesNo
December 31

Order Book

December 31

PriceSharesTotal
71.0¢2.4k$1.7k
67.0¢1.7k$1.1k
66.0¢238$157
64.0¢156$100
49.0¢19$9
36.0¢10$4
34.0¢11$4
33.0¢18$6
27.0¢10$3
22.0¢116$26
25.0¢last trade
3.0¢ spread
19.0¢309$59
18.0¢64$12
15.0¢100$15
13.0¢92$12
12.0¢1.0k$120
7.0¢10$1
6.0¢58$3
1.0¢12$0
$221 bids$3.2k asks

Resolution Criteria

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31

20%