Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Prediction markets currently show this as a heavily skewed outcome, with the 'No' side drawing the overwhelming majority of backing — meaning the market treats a magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake striking within 50 miles of Los Angeles before the end of 2026 as a low-probability event. The market resolves using USGS data, with a deadline of 31 December 2026. The 'Yes' outcome requires a qualifying epicentre confirmed by the USGS Earthquake Map.

Market structure

This is a binary Yes/No market. Volume is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome, with only a small share backing a qualifying earthquake before the deadline. Resolution depends entirely on the USGS Earthquake Map confirming an epicentre of magnitude 6.5 or greater within a straight-line 50-mile radius of central Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) on or before 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A fallback window extends to 7 January 2027 if a qualifying event has occurred but not yet appeared in the USGS data.

Background

Los Angeles sits atop one of the most seismically active regions in North America, threaded by major fault systems including the San Andreas, Puente Hills, and Newport-Inglewood faults. The last major earthquake to cause widespread damage in the region was the 1994 Northridge quake, which registered magnitude 6.7 and killed 57 people. Seismologists have long discussed the risk of a significant rupture on the southern San Andreas or other nearby faults, sometimes referred to in public discourse as 'the Big One.' Despite that long-term geological context, the occurrence of any individual earthquake above a specific threshold within a defined timeframe and geographic boundary remains inherently difficult to quantify, even with sophisticated hazard modelling. The January 2025 earthquakes in the broader Southern California region renewed public attention to seismic risk in the Los Angeles area.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether this market resolves 'Yes.' First, the 50-mile radius centred on downtown Los Angeles encompasses a dense network of fault segments, but magnitude 6.5 or above events on any single segment remain statistically infrequent over any given year-long window. Second, the timeframe is fixed and relatively short — roughly one calendar year — which compresses the probability window compared with longer-horizon hazard assessments. Third, foreshock-mainshock sequences mean that a cluster of smaller events could precede a qualifying rupture, though such sequences are not reliably predictive. Fourth, USGS magnitude revisions occasionally occur after initial reporting; if an event is initially recorded below 6.5 but later revised upward, the market's fallback mechanism and extended resolution window become relevant. Fifth, the epicentre requirement — straight-line distance only — means a large event on the outer edges of the fault network could qualify or fall just outside the boundary depending on rupture location, introducing geographic contingency into resolution.

FAQ