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Next Claude Haiku released by...?

Next Claude Haiku released by...?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$147 24h vol·tech
$147 total volume

August 31

61%-3.0%
OutcomeYesNo
August 31
December 31
October 31

Order Book

August 31

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢315$312
98.0¢57$55
97.0¢8$8
96.0¢172$165
95.0¢8$8
92.0¢13$12
91.0¢59$54
89.0¢5$4
66.0¢last trade
55.0¢ spread
34.0¢12$4
28.0¢8$2
4.0¢32$1
3.0¢300$9
2.0¢508$10
1.0¢1.5k$15
$41 bids$618 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

August 31

61%