Next Premier of Quebec

Resolution Criteria

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is the heaviest-backed contender to become the next Premier of Quebec in prediction market trading, with volume concentrated heavily on his name ahead of the provincial general election scheduled no later than 5 October 2026. The market spans 29 named outcomes and resolves to whoever is formally appointed Premier following that election, using official Government of Quebec sources for confirmation.

Market structure

The market covers 29 outcomes and is heavily concentrated on a single contender, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, with a small cluster of challengers — notably Charles Milliard and Christine Fréchette — attracting secondary interest. The remainder of the field draws minimal trading volume. Resolution requires formal appointment as Premier following the 2026 Quebec general election. If no appointment is made by 30 June 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Background

Quebec holds provincial general elections on a fixed schedule, with the next contest required by law no later than 5 October 2026. The incumbent party, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), swept to a majority government under François Legault in 2022 but has faced significant pressure in polling since. The province's political landscape also features the Parti Québécois, Québec solidaire, the Quebec Liberal Party, and the Conservative Party of Quebec, among others. Leadership transitions within several parties in the period since 2022 have reshaped the competitive field. The identity of the next Premier depends on which party wins a working majority or, failing that, can command confidence in the National Assembly.

Key factors

The outcome hinges on several structural variables. First, each party's choice of leader ahead of the campaign directly shapes voter appeal and polling trajectories. Second, inter-party competition in francophone regions outside Montreal has historically determined Quebec majority governments, and shifts in those ridings could prove decisive. Third, the CAQ's incumbency advantage must be weighed against any erosion of support since 2022; minority government scenarios would complicate the path to a clear Premier appointment. Fourth, coalition or confidence-and-supply dynamics could arise if no single party wins a majority, potentially delaying or complicating who is formally appointed. Fifth, candidate recruitment, campaign incidents, and economic conditions in the lead-up to the election could rapidly alter the competitive landscape. The fallback 'Other' outcome applies if no formal appointment occurs before 30 June 2027.

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