Prabowo Subianto out as President of Indonesia by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Prabowo Subianto ceases to be President of the Republic of Indonesia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Prabowo Subianto's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Prabowo Subianto and the government of Indonesia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction markets currently show Prabowo Subianto remaining as President of Indonesia through the end of 2026 as the heavily favoured outcome, with volume concentrated against removal or resignation. The market covers three resolution windows — May 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026 — and resolves to 'Yes' if Prabowo ceases to hold the presidency for any reason within the chosen timeframe. Resolution draws on official Indonesian government sources and credible reporting.

Market structure

The market offers three dated outcomes representing different windows by which Prabowo Subianto could leave the presidency: May 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026. Volume is heavily concentrated against early departure across all three dates, with the December 31 window attracting the most interest among 'Yes' positions. Resolution triggers include resignation, removal, detention, or any event permanently preventing fulfilment of presidential duties. An announced departure resolves the relevant market immediately, regardless of when it takes effect.

Background

Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated as Indonesia's eighth president in October 2024, succeeding Joko Widodo after winning the February 2024 presidential election. His presidency represents a significant political transition in Southeast Asia's largest democracy and most populous Muslim-majority nation. Prabowo, a former military general and son-in-law of former President Suharto, had contested the presidency twice previously before his 2024 victory. Indonesia's presidency carries a five-year term, and the constitutional framework does not provide easy mechanisms for removal. The existence of a prediction market on early departure reflects global interest in political stability tracking rather than any specific reported threat to his position.

Key factors

Several structural factors govern how this market could resolve. Constitutional removal of an Indonesian president requires impeachment proceedings initiated by the House of Representatives (DPR) and adjudicated by the Constitutional Court, a process with multiple procedural hurdles. Health-related incapacity — temporary or permanent — could trigger provisions under Article 8 of the Indonesian Constitution, potentially elevating the Vice President. Political coalition dynamics matter: Prabowo leads a broad coalition, and a collapse of parliamentary support could theoretically create conditions for impeachment, though this remains procedurally complex. External shocks — economic crises, civil unrest, or significant corruption findings — have historically preceded presidential departures in Indonesia, as seen with Abdurrahman Wahid's removal in 2001. The three dated windows allow the market to capture both near-term and medium-term risk. Any official announcement of resignation or removal, even if not yet in effect, would immediately resolve the relevant contracts.

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