Quebec General Election Winner

Resolution Criteria

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

The Parti Québécois is the heaviest-backed outcome to win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, with trading volume heavily concentrated on PQ ahead of a broadly distributed field. The Québec Liberal Party and Coalition Avenir Québec form the next tier of contenders. The market resolves to whichever party wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly on 5 October 2026, as confirmed by Élections Québec.

Market structure

Thirty-three outcomes are listed, but volume is heavily concentrated on three parties: the Parti Québécois as the heaviest-backed, followed by the Québec Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Québec. The remaining outcomes, including Québec solidaire and smaller parties, attract minimal trading. Resolution is based on seat count from the 125-seat National Assembly election. The official source is Élections Québec. If the election does not occur by 31 January 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Background

Quebec's provincial election on 5 October 2026 will elect all 125 members of the National Assembly using a first-past-the-post system across single-member ridings. The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, led by Premier François Legault, won a majority government in 2022, ending a long period of Liberal dominance. The PQ, historically the primary vehicle for Quebec sovereignty, experienced a significant revival in the 2024 federal cycle and in provincial polling, reclaiming momentum it had ceded to the CAQ and Québec solidaire in prior elections. The PLQ, once the governing party of choice for francophone moderates and the anglophone community, has been rebuilding under new leadership following consecutive electoral setbacks. The contest is being watched closely as a potential realignment of Quebec's distinct political landscape.

Key factors

Several structural factors could influence which party wins the most seats. Quebec's first-past-the-post system means vote efficiency matters enormously: a party can lead in popular vote but trail in seats if its support is geographically concentrated. The distribution of francophone, anglophone, and allophone voters across ridings shapes outcomes for each party differently. Leadership approval ratings and perceived economic management by the incumbent CAQ government will be a factor, particularly on cost-of-living issues. The degree to which the PQ can consolidate the sovereigntist vote — historically split with Québec solidaire — could prove decisive in urban and suburban ridings. Liberal recovery in greater Montreal and on the Island of Montreal could affect seat counts in that cluster of ridings disproportionately. Campaign events, debates, and any late-breaking developments between now and October 2026 remain open variables. Turnout patterns among younger voters, who have leaned toward QS, will also shape the final distribution.

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