South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner

Resolution Criteria

At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market. This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026. Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission. Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.

The Democratic Party of Korea is the heaviest-backed outcome in Polymarket's South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner market, with volume heavily concentrated on a single party. The People Power Party is the only other named contender attracting meaningful backing, though it trails significantly. Resolution is based on the party winning the greatest number of National Assembly seats in by-elections held on 3 June 2026, confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting or the National Election Commission.

Market structure

Twelve outcomes are listed, but trading volume is overwhelmingly concentrated on one outcome: the Democratic Party of Korea. The People Power Party holds the only other notable share of volume. The remaining parties — including the Rebuilding Korea Party, Progressive Party, and Reform Party — account for negligible fractions. Resolution requires at least four contested seats; if results are not confirmed by 31 December 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. Tiebreakers favour the party with more total valid votes, then alphabetical order.

Background

South Korea's June 2026 by-elections coincide with nationwide local elections, a scheduling arrangement that typically elevates turnout and political salience beyond ordinary mid-term contests. By-elections arise from seat vacancies caused by court rulings, deaths, resignations, or successful prosecutions of sitting members. The June 2026 cycle follows a period of acute political turbulence in South Korea, including President Yoon Suk-yeol's short-lived declaration of martial law in December 2024 and his subsequent impeachment, events that substantially reshaped party fortunes. The Democratic Party of Korea had already demonstrated strong performance in the April 2024 general elections, securing a commanding legislative majority. The People Power Party, Yoon's former vehicle, entered 2025 under considerable pressure to rebuild credibility ahead of scheduled electoral contests.

Key factors

The number of seats contested on 3 June 2026 is not fixed at the time of this market's creation; additional vacancies arising from court decisions, resignations, or member deaths could alter the competitive landscape. Candidate selection by each party will influence local dynamics, particularly in swing constituencies. The residual political fallout from the 2024 martial law episode and subsequent impeachment proceedings could continue to affect voter sentiment toward the People Power Party. Voter turnout patterns in concurrent local and by-election formats historically differ from standalone elections, and the alignment with local elections may advantage parties with stronger local organisational infrastructure. Coalition dynamics matter for campaign mobilisation but explicitly do not affect resolution, which is determined solely by seats won by individual parties. A strong third-party performance in specific constituencies could, in theory, split opposition or governing-bloc votes and alter the seat count, though such an outcome would require fragmentation not currently reflected in market pricing.

FAQ