Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

Prediction markets tracking a Sudan civil war ceasefire show trading broadly distributed across multiple resolution windows, with volume most heavily concentrated on outcomes tied to mid-2026 and end-2026 deadlines. Resolution requires a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Humanitarian pauses and informal arrangements do not qualify. The final resolution deadline is 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market offers four outcome windows for when an official ceasefire between the RSF and SAF might be reached. Volume is most heavily concentrated on the June 2026 and December 2026 windows, with the two outcomes together accounting for the bulk of trading activity. Resolution requires official announcements from both parties, or wide consensus across credible media reporting confirming a mutually agreed, publicly announced halt in fighting with a specified effective date. Informal ceasefires and humanitarian pauses are explicitly excluded.

Background

Sudan's civil war erupted in April 2023 when fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces, the country's formal military, and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary organisation that grew out of the Janjaweed militias. The conflict has produced one of the world's gravest humanitarian crises, displacing millions and causing widespread civilian casualties across Khartoum, Darfur, and other regions. Multiple ceasefire attempts brokered by regional and international actors — including the African Union, the United States, and Saudi Arabia — have collapsed or failed to produce a durable halt in fighting. The war has drawn in external actors and complicated regional stability, making negotiations particularly difficult. International pressure for a negotiated settlement has intensified as the humanitarian toll has grown, but formal agreement between the two armed factions has remained elusive through 2024 and into 2025.

Key factors

Several structural dynamics shape whether an official ceasefire can be reached within the resolution window. The willingness of both the RSF and SAF to participate in formal negotiations is a prerequisite; either party withdrawing from talks or launching a major offensive would set back prospects significantly. External mediation frameworks — particularly those led by the African Union and any involvement of Gulf states or the United States — provide potential pathways but require sustained diplomatic engagement from all parties. The military situation on the ground is a central variable: significant territorial shifts could alter either side's incentives to agree to a halt. Any ceasefire must meet the market's strict definition — a publicly announced, mutually agreed stop in fighting with a specified effective date — which excludes the kind of localised or informal pauses that have characterised previous attempts. Political legitimacy questions, including which governing or diplomatic bodies the SAF aligns with, add further complexity to formalising any agreement. Seasonal factors, including conditions in Darfur that historically affect fighting patterns, may also influence the timing of any breakthrough.

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