Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

Resolution Criteria

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count. Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation. Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify. Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Prediction markets show that traders heavily favour a 'Yes' resolution to the question of whether the Trump administration will formally expand its country-specific entry suspension list before the end of 2026. Volume is concentrated on the 'Yes' outcome, with the nearer June 30 deadline attracting somewhat less conviction than the full-year December 31 window. The market tracks any formal executive or legislative action targeting entry from a specific additional country, beyond those covered in the December 2025 proclamation.

Market structure

This is a binary Yes/No market with two resolution checkpoints: June 30 and December 31, 2026. Trading is heavily concentrated on 'Yes' at both deadlines, with the December 31 outcome attracting stronger conviction than the mid-year cut-off. Resolution requires a formal government action — executive order, signed legislation, or equivalent — specifically targeting entry from one or more additional countries. Blanket visa-class restrictions without country specificity do not qualify. The primary resolution source is official US federal government records, supplemented by credible reporting consensus.

Background

On 16 December 2025, President Trump issued a proclamation updating and expanding the United States' country-specific entry suspension framework, building on travel restriction mechanisms that trace back to executive actions first introduced during Trump's first term and litigated up to the Supreme Court. The December 2025 proclamation brought a revised set of full and partial suspensions affecting nationals of a range of countries. Travel and immigration restrictions of this kind have historically been among the more frequently exercised executive tools in the national security and immigration space, and the Trump administration has signalled continued prioritisation of entry controls as a policy objective throughout its second term. This market specifically watches for any further expansion of the country list beyond what was established in December 2025.

Key factors

The rate at which the administration expands country-specific restrictions will depend on several structural variables. Ongoing reviews of foreign-government cooperation with US deportation and information-sharing requests have historically triggered new designations; countries that fail to meet State Department benchmarks become candidates for additional restrictions. Geopolitical events — sanctions episodes, security incidents, or diplomatic ruptures — can accelerate formal action. The administration's stated policy of using entry restrictions as negotiating leverage means changes in bilateral relationships could add or remove countries from the list. Congressional action is a less common but possible pathway: legislation targeting specific nations could also satisfy the resolution criteria. Judicial intervention can delay implementation but, under the resolution rules, does not prevent a 'Yes' resolution if the underlying formal action has been taken. The six-month gap in implied conviction between the June and December checkpoints reflects uncertainty about timing rather than direction.

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