US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issuing a new combined licence (COL) for a nuclear power plant by 31 December 2026 is the minority-backed outcome in current prediction market trading, with volume concentrated on a 'No' resolution. A combined licence authorises both construction and operation of a new reactor, and no such licence has been issued by the NRC since the early 2010s. Resolution depends on official NRC documentation confirmed by credible reporting before the end of 2026.

Market structure

This is a binary yes/no market with a single resolution question. Volume is heavily concentrated on a 'No' outcome, with 'Yes' representing the minority position. Resolution requires the NRC to issue a formal combined licence — not an amendment, renewal, or partial approval — and document it in official releases. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The deadline is 31 December 2026.

Background

The NRC's combined licence process was established under 10 CFR Part 52 to streamline nuclear plant approvals by merging construction permits and operating licences into a single instrument. The last COLs issued by the NRC were granted to the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Georgia in 2012, enabling what became the first new US nuclear reactors completed in decades — Units 3 and 4, which entered commercial operation in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Renewed political and industrial interest in nuclear energy has grown substantially since then, driven by energy security concerns, data centre power demand, and climate commitments. Several developers, including those pursuing small modular reactor (SMR) designs, have engaged with the NRC on pre-application activities. However, the COL process is lengthy, and no application is widely reported to be at the stage where a licence award before end-2026 is considered straightforward.

Key factors

The primary structural factor is the NRC's review timeline: a full COL application typically requires several years of technical review, public hearings, and environmental assessment before issuance. Any application currently in advanced review would need to clear all remaining regulatory steps before 31 December 2026. Congressional or executive pressure to accelerate licensing — including through the ADVANCE Act signed in 2024, which directed the NRC to streamline processes — could reduce procedural timelines, though statutory requirements still apply. The eligibility of new reactor designs, including SMRs, adds a variable: if any SMR or advanced reactor developer receives a COL rather than a different licence type, that would qualify. Conversely, if approvals take the form of construction permits, operating licences issued separately, or NRC manufacturing licences, they would not meet the resolution criteria. Broader industry momentum, federal loan guarantees, and utility investment decisions influence the pipeline but do not directly determine NRC issuance timing.

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