Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets show 2026 is heavily concentrated to rank among the two hottest years ever recorded in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, with the heaviest volume on second place and substantial backing for first place. The remaining outcomes — third through sixth or lower — attract only marginal interest. Resolution uses NASA's official annual temperature anomaly figure, expected to become available in early 2027.

Market structure

Six outcomes cover every possible ranking position, from first (hottest ever) through sixth or lower. Volume is overwhelmingly concentrated on the top two outcomes, making this effectively a two-horse race between first and second place. Third through sixth-or-lower outcomes together account for a small fraction of total market interest. Resolution depends on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index No_Smoothing value for 2026, with a fallback deadline of 1 March 2027.

Background

NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index is one of the primary scientific benchmarks for tracking planetary warming, combining surface air temperatures over land with sea-surface temperatures. The index has been maintained since 1880, giving 2026's ranking a field of nearly 150 years to compete against. Recent years have repeatedly broken or approached all-time records: 2023 and 2024 both registered exceptional anomalies, with 2024 widely reported as the hottest year in the instrumental record. The question of where 2026 will sit in that sequence carries significance both scientifically and in public discourse around climate change, making it a market that attracts engagement well beyond specialist audiences.

Key factors

The final ranking of 2026 depends on the magnitude of its annual mean temperature anomaly relative to every prior year in the dataset. Several structural factors shape that outcome. El Niño and La Niña cycles are among the most significant short-term modulators of global surface temperatures; their phase and intensity during 2026 will heavily influence the annual mean. Volcanic eruptions can introduce cooling aerosols that temporarily suppress the anomaly, while their absence removes a potential downside factor. The underlying long-term warming trend raises the baseline from which each year begins, meaning years cluster more closely together at the top of the rankings. A tie with another year resolves according to that tied year's existing rank, which could affect final placement if anomalies are very close. The market resolves on the initial published figure rather than any subsequent revision, meaning early data releases carry finality regardless of later scientific updates.

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