Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The overwhelming weight of market trading on this question sits on 'No meeting before 2027', making it by far the heaviest-backed single outcome. Among the locations where a meeting is considered possible, Turkey and Qatar/UAE are the most concentrated choices, followed by China. Resolution depends on a confirmed in-person encounter between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin before 31 December 2026, with credible reporting as the source of truth.

Market structure

The market spans roughly 30 possible outcomes including a 'No meeting before 2027' option and a range of third-country venues. Volume is heavily concentrated on the no-meeting outcome, with the remainder thinly distributed across neutral or mediating states. Resolution requires a confirmed in-person interaction between both leaders. Any meeting held on Ukrainian territory under Russian de facto control is treated as Russian territory for resolution purposes. The deadline is 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Background

Zelenskyy and Putin have not held a direct bilateral meeting since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Diplomatic contacts since then have been largely indirect, conducted through intermediaries or multilateral formats. Several countries — notably Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and China — have positioned themselves as potential mediators and have hosted separate talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials. The prospect of a direct summit has been raised periodically in international diplomacy, particularly as ceasefire discussions have intensified at various points, but no confirmed meeting has taken place. The question of venue is itself politically significant: the choice of host country would carry strong signals about the diplomatic framing of any eventual negotiations.

Key factors

The most consequential factor is whether any broader peace process advances far enough to require or produce a direct summit before the end of 2026. Ceasefire negotiations, if they progress through intermediary stages, could eventually require a leaders-level meeting. The choice of venue would depend heavily on which mediating country has the most active diplomatic role at that point — Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China, Qatar, and the UAE have all been active in the wider conflict diplomacy. Putin's travel is constrained by the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued in 2023, which limits the pool of viable host countries to those that have not ratified the Rome Statute or are otherwise unlikely to enforce it. Zelenskyy's security requirements add further constraints. A meeting in Russia or Ukraine is structurally improbable given the active conflict. Third-country neutrals in the Gulf, Central Asia, or with established mediation roles represent the realistic venue space.

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