Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Drake is the heaviest-backed artist to achieve a Billboard Hot 100 number one in 2026, with volume in this 28-outcome market overwhelmingly concentrated on his 'Yes' outcome. Ariana Grande is the second-most heavily backed contender. Resolution depends on official weekly Billboard Hot 100 charts published between the week of 17 January 2026 and the week of 9 January 2027.

Market structure

The market covers 28 individual artists, each resolving 'Yes' or 'No' independently based on whether that artist appears as a primary credit on any Billboard Hot 100 number one song during the 2026 calendar data window. Volume is heavily concentrated on a small cluster of artists, with the remainder broadly distributed at lower levels. The resolution source is the official Billboard Hot 100 published weekly at billboard.com/charts/hot-100/.

Background

The Billboard Hot 100 has tracked American single popularity since 1958, combining streaming, airplay, and sales data. The 2026 market window captures 52 weekly charts, from the 17 January 2026 edition through to the 9 January 2027 edition. In recent years, the chart has been dominated by a rotating cast of hip-hop, pop, and country artists, often with catalogue tracks and collaborative releases complicating attribution. The inclusion of songs released before 2026 means dormant hits or streaming revivals — triggered by events such as film placements, viral moments, or award ceremonies — can qualify, broadening the range of plausible resolution paths for artists with deep back catalogues.

Key factors

Several structural factors shape outcomes across the 28 artists. Release schedules matter most directly: an artist with a major album or single planned for 2026 has more opportunities to reach number one than one without announced projects. Catalogue revivals driven by tours, anniversaries, or cultural moments can lift older tracks unexpectedly. Collaboration structures are consequential — a feature credit does not count, but an equal co-primary credit does, meaning joint releases could resolve multiple markets simultaneously. Country artists such as Morgan Wallen benefit from crossover streaming patterns that increasingly translate to Hot 100 dominance. Latin artists such as Peso Pluma operate in a streaming environment where Spanish-language tracks have demonstrated growing chart penetration. For artists with lengthy release gaps — Rihanna being the most prominent example — a single qualifying release would be sufficient, meaning announcement news or leaked project timelines can shift market sentiment rapidly. Chart methodology changes by Billboard, though rare, could also alter which songs qualify.

FAQ