Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Dopropillia is the heaviest-backed outcome in this multi-city Russian advance market, followed by Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka in a secondary cluster, with Sloviansk also drawing significant volume. The market tracks whether Russian forces will capture any territory in eight named Ukrainian cities or settlements by 31 December 2026, using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map as the primary resolution source. Volume is concentrated on a small number of Donbas cities, with Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhia representing the lightest-backed outcomes.

Market structure

Eight independent yes/no outcomes covering named Ukrainian cities: Dopropillia, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Sumy, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia. Volume is heavily concentrated on the first three, which form a distinct cluster. Resolution requires any portion of a city to appear under qualifying ISW shading layers before 31 December 2026 at 23:59 ET. The primary source is the ISW Ukraine conflict map; DeepStateMap serves as fallback if ISW becomes unavailable.

Background

Russia's ground campaign in eastern Ukraine has been focused primarily on the Donetsk oblast, where incremental advances have brought front lines progressively closer to several key urban centres. Dopropillia and Druzhkivka lie within or near areas of active Russian pressure, while Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are the administrative and logistical anchors of Ukrainian-held Donetsk. The fall of Avdiivka in early 2024 and subsequent Russian gains across the oblast have heightened scrutiny of these cities as potential next objectives. Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhia represent different strategic theatres: Sumy gained attention following cross-border incursions, while Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhia have each seen periods of intense fighting at various stages of the war but remain under Ukrainian control.

Key factors

The pace of Russian advance in Donetsk directly affects resolution of the Dopropillia, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk outcomes. Russian logistics, ammunition supply chains, and reinforcement cycles all influence operational tempo. Ukrainian defensive capability — including Western military aid, fortification depth, and troop rotation — functions as a direct counterweight. For Sumy, the critical variable is whether cross-border incursions escalate into sustained territorial seizure rather than temporary infiltration. Kharkiv's resolution hinges on whether Russia opens a renewed northern offensive of sufficient scale; the city's proximity to the Russian border makes it structurally vulnerable but also politically and logistically costly to attack directly. Kherson and Zaporizhia would require river-crossing operations across the Dnipro under current front-line conditions, a significant operational threshold. Any ceasefire or negotiated settlement that establishes actual Russian control — not merely de jure recognition — would trigger yes resolution under the stated criteria, introducing a diplomatic pathway independent of battlefield progress.

FAQ