Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

France and Turkey are the heaviest-backed destinations for a Donald Trump visit in 2026, with the United Kingdom close behind, according to prediction market trading across 24 listed countries. The market covers any physical entry into a listed country's terrestrial or maritime territory between 1 January and 31 December 2026. Each country resolves independently as a Yes/No outcome.

Market structure

The market spans 24 individual Yes/No contracts, one per listed country, each resolving independently. Trading is heavily concentrated on a small cluster of Western European and allied nations — France, Turkey, and the United Kingdom — while outcomes covering Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan, and several Middle Eastern nations carry far less backing. Resolution requires confirmed physical entry into a country's territory, not merely overflight, by 31 December 2026.

Background

Presidential foreign travel is a significant signal of diplomatic priorities, and Trump's first term was characterised by a distinctive pattern of visits — including early trips to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and NATO partners, as well as historic engagements with North Korea. His return to the presidency in January 2025 renewed interest in which bilateral relationships he would prioritise through in-person summitry. International forums such as the G7 and NATO summits, typically held annually, create predictable windows for presidential travel to Europe and allied nations, while Trump's stated interest in brokering peace in Ukraine and engaging Middle Eastern partners adds further destinations to the speculative map.

Key factors

Several structural factors shape which countries are likely to appear on Trump's 2026 travel itinerary. Scheduled multilateral summits — including G7, G20, and NATO gatherings — create fixed diplomatic calendars that historically anchor presidential foreign visits. Bilateral relationships under active negotiation, particularly around trade, security guarantees, or ceasefire efforts, increase the chance of in-person meetings. Countries hosting major international events Trump has expressed interest in attending, such as sporting finals or state ceremonies, also factor in. The definition of 'visit' turns strictly on physical terrestrial or maritime entry, meaning a refuelling stop that does not involve leaving the aircraft would not qualify. Edge cases such as travel through disputed territories or maritime zones could raise resolution questions. Geopolitical volatility — particularly in conflict zones such as Ukraine and Gaza — affects the feasibility and security calculus for visits to neighbouring or involved states. Domestic political events and congressional schedules can compress or expand windows available for foreign travel.

FAQ