Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets tracking which countries will secure a new trade deal with the United States before the end of 2026 show volume broadly distributed across seventeen named trading partners, with no single outcome commanding dominant backing. South Korea, India, the United Kingdom, and Indonesia are among the heaviest-backed outcomes, though the field remains competitive. Resolution requires a free trade agreement or Congressional-Executive Agreement to become law in the United States by 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market covers seventeen distinct country or entity outcomes, each resolving independently as Yes or No. Volume is broadly distributed rather than concentrated, with a small cluster of contenders — South Korea, India, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, and Israel — attracting the heaviest backing. Resolution requires formal enactment into US law, either through Senate ratification or a Presidential signature on a Congressional-Executive Agreement, by 31 December 2026. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

Background

The Trump administration's second term has been characterised by aggressive use of tariff measures as leverage in bilateral trade negotiations, departing from the multilateral frameworks that defined US trade policy for much of the post-war era. Several major trading partners — including the United Kingdom, India, Japan, and members of the European Union — entered various stages of negotiation with Washington during 2025. The administration's approach prioritises bilateral arrangements over regional or multilateral deals, making individual country-level agreements the primary vehicle for trade liberalisation. Historically, formal US trade agreements take years to negotiate, draft, and ratify; completing multiple such deals within a single calendar year would be an unusually rapid pace by any modern standard. The December 2026 deadline therefore sets a high bar.

Key factors

The pace at which any negotiation reaches the legal threshold of enactment depends on several structural variables. First, the complexity of each bilateral relationship matters: economies with large goods surpluses with the United States, or sensitive sectors such as agriculture and pharmaceuticals, tend to generate more contentious negotiations. Second, the chosen legislative pathway — Senate ratification under Article II or a Congressional-Executive Agreement — affects timeline; the latter requires majority votes in both chambers rather than a two-thirds Senate supermajority, which may be faster in some political environments. Third, domestic political conditions in the partner country can delay or accelerate agreement: election cycles, parliamentary calendars, and coalition dynamics all affect a government's ability to make concessions. Fourth, the administration's stated prioritisation of certain partners over others will influence sequencing. Fifth, agreements in principle or framework deals announced publicly do not satisfy the resolution criteria unless formally enacted into US law before the deadline.

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