Which exchange will SpaceX list on?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO). The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO. If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution. If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins. The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction markets show NASDAQ as the overwhelmingly favoured venue for a SpaceX IPO listing, with volume heavily concentrated on that outcome. NYSE and Other trail far behind as minor positions. Resolution depends on where SpaceX shares first begin regular-way public trading as part of an official IPO, with a deadline of 31 December 2026 before the market defaults to 'Other'.

Market structure

The market offers three outcomes: NASDAQ, NYSE, and Other. Volume is exceptionally concentrated on NASDAQ, making this closer to a near-consensus position than a contested race. 'Other' captures any primary listing on a non-NASDAQ or non-NYSE exchange, or any scenario in which SpaceX does not complete an IPO by 31 December 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual listing venue at the moment trading begins, not by prior announcements or reported intentions.

Background

SpaceX, the aerospace and satellite company founded by Elon Musk, remains one of the most closely watched private companies in the world and has long been the subject of IPO speculation. Unlike its sibling company Tesla, which is listed on NASDAQ, SpaceX has remained private for over two decades, sustaining its valuation through private funding rounds. In recent years, SpaceX has separated its Starlink satellite internet division, which has been reported as a potential separate public vehicle, adding complexity to any IPO scenario. The company's valuation in secondary markets has grown substantially, intensifying interest from retail and institutional investors in any eventual public listing. No confirmed IPO timeline or exchange filing has been made public as of mid-2025.

Key factors

The choice of exchange would likely be influenced by sector precedent — technology and aerospace companies have historically favoured NASDAQ — as well as any underwriter recommendations made during the IPO process. NASDAQ's established positioning as the venue for high-growth technology listings creates a structural pull, but NYSE has made sustained efforts to attract prominent technology IPOs. If SpaceX chose to list Starlink separately rather than the parent company, the resolution of this market could be affected depending on whether that constitutes an SpaceX IPO. The 31 December 2026 deadline creates a specific resolution window; if market conditions deteriorate, regulatory hurdles emerge, or strategic priorities shift, the company may delay beyond that date, triggering an 'Other' resolution regardless of eventual listing venue. Any direct listing or SPAC transaction, if not considered a conventional IPO, could also introduce ambiguity around resolution.

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