Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Resolution Criteria

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is the heaviest-backed contender to lead the 99th Academy Awards nomination count in current prediction market trading, with Dune: Messiah as the principal challenger in what amounts to a two-horse race. The remaining field — including Project Hail Mary, Disclosure Day, and around 14 other titles — holds a combined minority share of trading volume. Resolution is based on official AMPAS nomination tallies, expected to be announced ahead of a ceremony scheduled for March 2027.

Market structure

The market spans 22 named outcomes and resolves to the single film with the greatest number of nominations at the 99th Academy Awards. Volume is heavily concentrated on two titles, with The Odyssey the heaviest-backed and Dune: Messiah a substantial second. The remaining 20 outcomes share a small portion of total volume. In the event of a tied nomination count, alphabetical order determines the winner. An 'Other' fallback applies if no nominations are announced by 30 June 2027.

Background

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to recognise films released during the 2026 eligibility year, with the ceremony anticipated in early March 2027. The race for the most nominations is a closely watched market because it often signals overall awards momentum — historically, the films leading the nomination count have frequently gone on to compete across multiple major categories including Best Picture, Director, and technical awards. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, an adaptation of Homer's epic poem, has attracted significant industry attention since its announcement. Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Messiah, the continuation of his acclaimed Dune franchise, enters the cycle with strong institutional support following the commercial and critical success of its predecessors. The nominations are announced by the Academy typically in January of the awards year, making the announcement period a pivotal moment for market resolution.

Key factors

The primary structural factor is the release and critical reception of the films themselves — only films meeting AMPAS eligibility requirements for the relevant calendar year qualify, and strong performance across multiple departments (production design, cinematography, score, editing) tends to drive high nomination totals. Nolan and Villeneuve both have established track records of earning nominations across technical and craft categories, which can amplify a film's total count independently of narrative awards. Awards precursors — including the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and guild nominations — historically correlate with Oscar nomination volume and may shift market sentiment as the season develops. A late change in release date for any title could remove it from eligibility entirely. The alphabetical tiebreaker rule is also a structural consideration in a year where two technically ambitious productions are in close competition, as it creates an asymmetric resolution outcome should they finish level.

FAQ