Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Ilia Topuria, Islam Makhachev, and Khamzat Chimaev are the heaviest-backed contenders to hold the UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 ranking on 31 December 2026, with volume broadly concentrated across those three fighters. The market spans 23 named outcomes, reflecting how fluid p4p rankings can be across a full calendar year. Resolution is determined by the official UFC rankings on 31 December 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Market structure

Twenty-three outcomes are in play, with volume heavily concentrated on three fighters — Topuria, Makhachev, and Chimaev — and the remainder of the field broadly distributed across a mix of champions and top contenders. Resolution is sourced directly from the official UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings at ufc.com on 31 December 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If no fighter holds the #1 position at that check-time, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Background

The UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings are a media and analyst-voted measure of fighter quality irrespective of weight class, widely regarded as the sport's most prestigious unofficial honour. The list has historically been dominated by long-reigning champions, with fighters such as Jon Jones, Georges St-Pierre, and Anderson Silva each holding the top spot for extended periods. In recent years the rankings have been more volatile, reflecting a generational transition. Islam Makhachev claimed the #1 position following his dominant lightweight title defences, while Ilia Topuria's rise after dethroning Alexander Volkanovski introduced a serious rival for that standing. Khamzat Chimaev's inclusion as a heavy-backed outcome reflects both his unbeaten record and speculation about a potential move up in weight class or a high-profile title shot that could reshape the rankings before year's end.

Key factors

The most direct influence on this market is championship activity across the UFC's most prestigious weight classes between now and December 2026. A fighter who successfully defends a title — particularly at lightweight, welterweight, or light heavyweight — typically strengthens their p4p case. Conversely, a defeat or a voluntary absence from competition tends to push fighters down the list. For Topuria and Makhachev, the frequency and quality of their title defences over the next twelve months will be central. Chimaev's position depends heavily on whether he secures and wins a title fight, as he does not yet hold a belt. The rankings are determined by media voters rather than an algorithmic formula, meaning narrative momentum, recency of performance, and the perceived quality of opposition all carry weight alongside raw results. Injuries, fight cancellations, or weight-class moves by any of the leading contenders could redistribute p4p standing significantly. The broad spread of volume across Merab Dvalishvili, Arman Tsarukyan, and Dricus Du Plessis also reflects genuine uncertainty about which fighters may emerge through title victories in 2026.

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