Who will be arrested before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This prediction market asks whether each of 24 named individuals will be arrested before the end of 2026. Volume is broadly distributed across a wide field, with John Brennan the heaviest-backed outcome, followed by Lee Jun-seok, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Brandon Johnson, and Benjamin Netanyahu forming a secondary cluster. Resolution requires a qualifying arrest or detention by 31 December 2026, verified against official law enforcement sources or a consensus of credible reporting.

Market structure

The market covers 24 named individuals across politics, law enforcement, and public life in multiple countries. Volume is broadly distributed rather than concentrated, with no single outcome commanding an overwhelming share. Each individual resolves independently to Yes or No. Resolution requires physical custody, formal surrender, or house arrest by 31 December 2026. The primary resolution source is official government or law enforcement information, with credible journalistic consensus as a secondary source.

Background

Prediction markets tracking potential arrests of public figures have grown in prominence during periods of heightened political and legal scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions. The individuals listed span former senior US officials, current and former foreign leaders, state-level politicians, and prominent public figures. Several have faced public calls for investigation, active legal proceedings, or documented law enforcement interest in their activities. The market's international scope — spanning the United States, Israel, South Korea, and Spain, among others — reflects how arrest risk is not confined to a single political or legal system. The range of implied probabilities across the field reflects the significant variation in the legal situations each individual currently faces.

Key factors

Each individual's resolution path depends on distinct factors. For those facing active US federal or state investigations, outcomes hinge on prosecutorial decisions, grand jury activity, and the pace of proceedings within the 2026 deadline. For foreign nationals such as Benjamin Netanyahu and Lee Jun-seok, domestic legal systems and political conditions — including immunity frameworks, judicial independence, and government stability — are central. For figures such as Mahmoud Khalil, immigration enforcement mechanisms introduce a separate legal track. The definition of qualifying arrest is broad, encompassing house arrest and electronic monitoring, which may affect outcomes in jurisdictions where such measures are common alternatives to physical detention. Changes in administration, shifts in prosecutorial priorities, diplomatic considerations, and the possibility of plea arrangements or voluntary surrender all function as decision points. The December 2026 deadline creates time pressure that could either accelerate or effectively foreclose resolution depending on where proceedings stand in each jurisdiction.

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