Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Scott Bessent, John Ratcliffe, Doug Collins, and Lee Zeldin are among the heaviest-backed outcomes in this Polymarket market asking who will next leave the Trump Cabinet. Trading is broadly distributed across a large field of 29 outcomes, with no single contender dominating. The market resolves to whichever Cabinet member first announces or is announced as departing, or to 'None before 2027' if no departure occurs before 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market spans 29 outcomes covering the Vice President, heads of the 15 executive departments, and a defined set of senior Cabinet-level roles. Volume is broadly distributed, with a small cluster of outcomes — including several department heads and senior advisers — drawing heavier concentration than the rest. The 'None before 2027' outcome also draws notable volume. Resolution is triggered by an official announcement of departure, regardless of when that departure takes effect. The tiebreaker for simultaneous departures is alphabetical order by surname.

Background

Cabinet turnover is a recurring feature of modern American presidencies, with departures driven by policy disagreements, congressional pressure, personal circumstances, or presidential directive. The second Trump administration assembled a large and, in several cases, politically contested Cabinet, with a number of confirmations preceded by significant Senate scrutiny. Several Cabinet members oversee agencies undergoing substantial structural reorganisation under current administration priorities, including significant workforce reductions and mandate realignments. The breadth of the market — covering not only department secretaries but also the CIA Director, Chief of Staff, UN Ambassador, and trade and budget officials — reflects how widely the term 'Cabinet' is defined for resolution purposes. Historical precedent suggests departures across a four-year term are near-certain; the market question is specifically about timing within the calendar year 2026.

Key factors

The pace of any departure will depend on several intersecting dynamics. Congressional oversight and investigative activity can create pressure on individual Cabinet members, particularly those whose confirmation was contested or whose departments attract sustained scrutiny. Internal policy tensions — especially where a Cabinet member's public positioning diverges from administration direction — have historically preceded departures. External events such as foreign-policy crises, economic shocks, or legislative defeats can accelerate or trigger personnel changes. The administration's ongoing restructuring of federal agencies introduces operational friction that may affect the tenure of relevant department heads. The definition of departure used here is broad: a move from one Cabinet-level role to another counts as a departure for resolution purposes, which means lateral reassignments as well as outright exits are relevant. The alphabetical tiebreaker means the sequencing of any simultaneous announcements carries market significance. The 'None before 2027' outcome is contingent on the entire defined Cabinet remaining stable through year-end, an outcome with its own set of dependencies.

FAQ