Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

This market tracks which named Trump administration officials will leave their roles before 31 December 2026, with each individual resolved independently as 'Yes' or 'No'. Volume is broadly distributed across the sixteen listed officials rather than concentrated on a single outcome. Lee Zeldin and Kash Patel are the heaviest-backed to depart, while Marco Rubio and Scott Bessent sit at the opposite end of the field. Resolution is triggered by any official announcement of departure, regardless of when it takes effect.

Market structure

The market covers twenty outcomes across sixteen named officials, each resolved independently. Concentration varies significantly by individual: a small cluster carry heavily-backed departure odds, while others are broadly distributed toward remaining. Resolution source is official Trump administration announcements, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source. The deadline is 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. An announced departure resolves immediately to 'Yes' even if the effective date falls later.

Background

High turnover in the first Trump administration — which saw record numbers of Cabinet and senior staff departures within a single term — has made departure markets a recurring focus for political prediction markets. The second Trump administration, which began in January 2025, assembled a mix of returning loyalists, newly prominent figures, and controversial cabinet picks, several of whom faced contentious Senate confirmation battles. The combination of high-profile policy portfolios, ongoing congressional scrutiny, and the administration's documented preference for visible personnel changes has sustained market interest in which officials will serve the full two-year window through to the end of 2026.

Key factors

Each official's resolution is shaped by distinct structural factors. Officials in operationally exposed roles — managing contentious policy areas such as immigration enforcement, intelligence oversight, or federal spending — face heightened public and congressional scrutiny that can accelerate departures. Officials whose roles are tied directly to time-limited initiatives or whose positions were created by executive action rather than statute may be more structurally vulnerable to reorganisation. Personal relationships with the President have historically been a significant variable in the Trump administration, as departures have often followed public disagreements or shifts in favour rather than formal processes. External factors — congressional hearings, inspector-general findings, media investigations, or legal proceedings — can also generate pressure leading to resignation or removal. Conversely, officials embedded in long-term regulatory or policy implementation roles with established bureaucratic functions may prove more durable. The market also responds to any public reporting of internal tension, reassignment discussions, or unofficial signals from administration sources.

FAQ