Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market covers whether Donald Trump will meet in person with each of 24 listed individuals at any point during 2026. Trading is heavily concentrated at the top end for Giorgia Meloni, Mohammed bin Salman, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and Keir Starmer, while figures such as Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and Aleksandr Lukashenko sit in a middle tier. Resolution is based on credible reporting confirming an in-person interaction, with a deadline of 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market covers 24 individual binary outcomes, each resolving 'Yes' or 'No' depending on whether Trump meets a listed person in person during 2026. Volume is heavily concentrated at the high end for a small cluster of world leaders and heads of government, with a wide spread across the remaining names. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. Each outcome resolves independently. The deadline for all outcomes is 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Background

Prediction markets tracking Trump's diplomatic and social contacts have drawn significant interest since his return to the presidency in January 2025, reflecting uncertainty about the pace and direction of his foreign engagements. The list spans heads of state, deposed or impeached leaders, prominent content creators, a cryptocurrency executive, and a far-right political figure, illustrating the breadth of figures whose access to Trump is considered plausible. Several names — including Putin, Kim Jong Un, and Mohammed bin Salman — reflect ongoing geopolitical storylines around potential summits or diplomatic resets. Others, such as MrBeast and iShowSpeed, reflect Trump's documented engagement with online media personalities. The inclusion of figures such as Jair Bolsonaro, who faces domestic legal proceedings in Brazil, and Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached in South Korea, adds a dimension of political contingency to whether meetings are even logistically feasible.

Key factors

For world leaders, the primary drivers are whether formal diplomatic visits, multilateral summits, or bilateral negotiations are scheduled or materialise. Trump's travel itinerary and the willingness of foreign governments to host or visit Washington are key variables. Sanctions, diplomatic recognition, and the legal status of some individuals — such as Bolsonaro's travel restrictions and Yoon's domestic proceedings — could physically prevent meetings regardless of political will. For Putin and Kim Jong Un, any in-person encounter would require significant diplomatic groundwork and security arrangements, making scheduling a structural constraint. For figures like Lukashenko, any meeting would carry significant political symbolism and may depend on the state of broader Belarus-related diplomacy. Content creators and public figures depend almost entirely on informal access, which is harder to anticipate from public scheduling. Pope Leo XIV's inclusion introduces an ecclesiastical dimension, likely tied to whether a papal audience or Vatican visit occurs. Changpeng Zhao's recent legal history in the United States adds a layer of complexity around whether a formal meeting is publicly disclosed or reported.

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