Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Daniel Penny and Matt Gaetz are the heaviest-backed individuals in this multi-outcome market asking who Donald Trump will pardon before 2027, with Roger Stone and Bob Menendez also among the most prominently traded names. The market covers 27 named individuals, with volume distributed unevenly across a broad field. Resolution requires an official presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve issued between 17 November 2025 and 31 December 2026, verified against US government records or a consensus of credible reporting.

Market structure

The market spans 27 named outcomes, each resolving independently as Yes or No. Volume is distributed across a broad field, though heavily concentrated on a small cluster of contenders — Daniel Penny, Matt Gaetz, and Roger Stone draw the most sustained interest. The remaining outcomes range from moderate to minimal trading activity. Each outcome resolves Yes only if the named individual receives a formal pardon, commutation, or reprieve from President Trump by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Background

Presidential pardons are among the most discretionary acts available to a sitting US president, requiring no congressional approval and subject to very limited judicial review. Trump's first term was characterised by high-profile clemency decisions, including pardons for associates and allies, which established a pattern that traders now factor into second-term expectations. The individuals named in this market span several categories: political figures facing or convicted of federal charges, high-profile criminal defendants whose cases attracted public debate, cryptocurrency and finance figures, and cultural personalities. The window opens 17 November 2025 — reflecting that some individuals may already have received clemency before that date — and closes at the end of 2026, leaving roughly thirteen months of coverage.

Key factors

Each individual outcome is shaped by distinct causal chains. For political associates, the key variable is the degree of public or private alignment with the current administration and whether outstanding legal exposure creates a clemency trigger. For defendants in high-profile criminal cases, public statements from Trump or his advisers about the case are a leading indicator — Trump has commented publicly on several cases listed in this market during and after the 2024 campaign. For federal charges specifically, a pardon is constitutionally available; state convictions are outside presidential clemency power, which could affect resolution for individuals facing mixed federal-state exposure. The timeline introduces additional contingency: pardons are often issued in batches at politically significant moments, such as the early days of a term, holidays, or ahead of congressional recesses. A commutation or reprieve — not only a full pardon — qualifies for Yes resolution, broadening the range of qualifying executive actions. Any individual who receives clemency outside the 17 November 2025 to 31 December 2026 window does not qualify for Yes resolution, regardless of the nature of the act.

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