Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Prediction markets show a meaningful but minority share of volume backing a second OPEC departure in 2026, following the United Arab Emirates' official withdrawal announcement on 28 April 2026. The market is a straightforward yes/no question, with the 'No' outcome drawing the heavier concentration of backing. Resolution requires an official government announcement from a current OPEC member before 31 December 2026.

Market structure

This is a binary yes/no market with a single resolution outcome. Volume is concentrated on the 'No' side, though the 'Yes' outcome carries a notable minority share. Resolution requires an official withdrawal announcement from any OPEC member that had not already announced its exit at market creation. The primary source is official government statements, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary mechanism. Deadline is 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time.

Background

The UAE's announcement on 28 April 2026 marked a significant moment for OPEC, an organisation that has already seen notable departures in recent years — Ecuador, Qatar, and Indonesia have all exited at various points in the group's history. The UAE had been a central figure in OPEC+ production negotiations, and its departure follows a period of recurring tension over output quotas and individual member interests diverging from collective targets. OPEC's remaining membership includes countries with varying levels of commitment to the group's quota framework, and the UAE's exit has renewed scrutiny of whether other members may reassess their participation. The question of organisational cohesion has become more acute as non-OPEC producers have gained global market share.

Key factors

Several structural factors could influence whether a second departure announcement emerges before year-end. The UAE's exit may create a precedent effect, lowering the political cost for other members considering withdrawal. Countries that have repeatedly clashed with OPEC's quota allocations — or that have significant spare capacity they wish to deploy independently — face renewed incentive to evaluate membership. Conversely, the remaining members may seek to consolidate the bloc and offer concessions to retain participation, reducing the probability of further exits in the short term. The pace and tone of diplomatic activity within OPEC following the UAE announcement will be a key signal. External factors, including global oil demand trajectory, the behaviour of non-OPEC producers, and broader geopolitical shifts, also shape individual members' calculations about the value of remaining within the organisation. The resolution window closes at the end of 2026, meaning any announcement made informally or via unnamed sources will not qualify.

FAQ