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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$417 24h vol·crypto
11 comments·$334.3k total volume·Open for 193 days

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

22%-8.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Order Book

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

PriceSharesTotal
31.0¢35$11
30.0¢135$41
29.0¢40$11
28.0¢48$13
27.0¢70$19
26.0¢35$9
25.0¢41$10
24.0¢16$4
23.0¢95$22
22.0¢55$12
79.0¢last trade
1.0¢ spread
21.0¢59$12
20.0¢95$19
19.0¢35$7
17.0¢40$7
16.0¢200$32
15.0¢45$7
14.0¢23$3
6.0¢9$1
5.0¢70$4
3.0¢10.0k$300
$391 bids$152 asks

Resolution Criteria

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

22%