Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Prediction market trading on whether any month of 2026 will set a new global temperature record is heavily concentrated on a 'Yes' resolution, making it the dominant outcome in the market. Resolution depends on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data confirming that at least one calendar month of 2026 surpasses all prior readings for that month. The market can resolve as early as the first qualifying month's data is published, with a final deadline of 10 January 2027.

Market structure

This is a binary market with a single tracked outcome — whether any month of 2026 registers as the hottest on record for that calendar month per NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Volume is heavily concentrated on a 'Yes' resolution. The market resolves immediately upon qualifying data being released by NASA, or by 10 January 2027 at the latest. A tied record counts as a 'Yes'. If NASA data is unavailable, a consensus of credible sources serves as a fallback.

Background

Global surface temperature records have been broken with increasing frequency over the past decade, driven by long-term anthropogenic warming compounded by natural climate variability. 2023 and 2024 both produced numerous monthly temperature records according to NASA's GISTEMP dataset, with 2024 becoming the hottest year in the instrumental record. The El Niño cycle, which elevated sea-surface temperatures through 2023 and into 2024, has since transitioned, but residual oceanic heat and baseline warming continue to elevate the probability of record-setting months. NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, maintained by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, is one of the principal datasets used by climate scientists and policymakers to track surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1951–1980 baseline.

Key factors

The primary structural factor is the long-term warming trend embedded in the baseline: each successive year begins from a higher temperature floor, increasing the statistical frequency of record-breaking months. The phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant short-term influence — El Niño conditions tend to raise global mean temperatures, while La Niña conditions suppress them. The transition between these phases in 2025–2026 will affect whether 2026 months can exceed the very high anomalies recorded during the 2023–2024 El Niño peak. Volcanic activity represents an additional contingency: a major eruption could introduce aerosol cooling that suppresses temperature anomalies for months or years. The resolution mechanic also matters — because the market resolves 'Yes' if any single month qualifies, the probability of a 'Yes' outcome accumulates across twelve independent opportunities rather than depending on a single event. Data publication timing by NASA's GISTEMP team determines when early resolution can occur.

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