Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Drobysheve, Donetsk Oblast, (49°02'31.4"N 37°43'54.7"E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Drobysheve will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Drobysheve, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/yiAyYtTgaCyuwBJCA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Prediction markets show Drobysheve, a small settlement in Donetsk Oblast, is heavily concentrated on a 'No' resolution, with the outcome reflecting full Russian capture of the municipality by 31 March 2026 commanding only marginal backing. The market tracks whether the entirety of Drobysheve is shaded red on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map before the deadline. Resolution is determined solely by ISW cartographic assessment, with DeepStateMap as a fallback source.

Market structure

The market offers three outcomes tied to different resolution windows, with volume heavily concentrated away from a 'Yes' result. The heaviest-backed outcome implies Russian capture is not anticipated within the timeframe. Resolution requires the entire municipality to appear shaded red on the ISW Ukraine map through at least one full daily update cycle. The hard deadline is 31 March 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with a market expiry of 31 May 2026.

Background

Drobysheve is a small settlement in Donetsk Oblast, located at approximately 49°02'31.4"N 37°43'54.7"E, in a region that has been a theatre of sustained ground combat since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The broader Donetsk front has seen incremental but contested Russian advances, with numerous villages and settlements changing hands over multi-month periods. ISW, a Washington-based defence research organisation, publishes daily updated maps of assessed territorial control in Ukraine and has become the standard resolution source for conflict-related prediction markets. The pace of advance in this part of Donetsk has been characterised by attritional fighting, with control of individual settlements often disputed for extended periods before a definitive assessment is made.

Key factors

The primary factor governing resolution is the rate of Russian ground advance in the specific sector containing Drobysheve. If Russian forces consolidate positions in surrounding settlements, they may encircle or directly assault the municipality, accelerating ISW's assessment of full capture. Conversely, Ukrainian defensive operations, counterattacks, or reinforcement of positions in the area could delay or prevent capture within the deadline. The resolution criteria require persistence of red shading through a full ISW update cycle, meaning a temporary advance that is subsequently reversed would not qualify. A negotiated ceasefire or settlement that transfers de facto control to Russia would also trigger a 'Yes' resolution, independent of ISW mapping, provided actual control is established rather than merely announced. The availability of the ISW map itself is a procedural factor; if it becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting consensus would be used. The distinction between 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' and confirmed control categories is also material, as infiltration shading explicitly does not qualify.

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