Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vXBbP9idYDbbC21RA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Prediction markets currently show trading concentrated on a 'No' resolution by the end of May 2026, with the June 30 outcome attracting the heaviest volume among the listed dates. The market asks whether Russian forces will capture the entirety of Huliaipole, a town in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, as confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War's map by 28 February 2026. Resolution requires the full municipal area to be shaded red on the ISW daily conflict map.

Market structure

The market offers five dated outcomes reflecting different capture deadlines. Volume is broadly distributed but weighted toward later dates, suggesting the heaviest-backed outcomes sit beyond the February 2026 window. Resolution is determined solely by the ISW Ukraine conflict map, with DeepStateMap and credible reporting as fallback sources. The full municipal boundary must be shaded red and the shading must persist through one complete ISW daily update cycle to qualify.

Background

Huliaipole is a small town in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, located roughly 50 kilometres east of the city of Zaporizhzhia and historically associated with the anarchist revolutionary Nestor Makhno. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the broader Zaporizhzhya front has been among the most contested in the country, with Russian forces conducting sustained pressure along multiple axes. Huliaipole has been subject to prolonged shelling and is situated close to the front line, making it a recurring focus of battlefield reporting. The town itself has been largely evacuated. Control of settlements in this region carries both tactical significance in terms of road and supply access and symbolic weight given the slow, grinding nature of the land campaign.

Key factors

The pace of Russian advances in Zaporizhzhya Oblast has been incremental, shaped by Ukrainian defensive lines, availability of artillery ammunition on both sides, and the degree of Western military assistance flowing to Kyiv. Any acceleration in Russian operational tempo — whether through a breakthrough on an adjacent axis or attrition of Ukrainian defensive units — could bring Huliaipole closer to full encirclement. Equally, ceasefire negotiations or a freezing of the front line would likely halt any advance short of the municipal boundary. The resolution criteria require the entire municipality, not merely the urban core, to fall under Russian control, meaning partial advances or infiltration-only classifications would not trigger a 'Yes'. The ISW's classification methodology — distinguishing between assessed control, advances, and infiltration — is therefore a direct variable in how battlefield changes translate to market resolution. A negotiated settlement transferring de facto control would also qualify, meaning diplomatic developments are as relevant as military ones.

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