Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP1.png Building Location in Bilytske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP2.png Bilytske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BP3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/J8DsAv3gKWbD4DSD9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

This prediction market asks whether Russian forces will capture a specific building in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by 31 May 2026, as tracked on the ISW Ukraine conflict map. The market spans four resolution dates, with volume heavily concentrated on the latest deadline. Resolution depends on the building's coordinates being shaded as Russian-controlled on the ISW ArcGIS story map and that shading persisting through a full daily update cycle.

Market structure

The market offers four outcome windows for Russian capture of a single geo-referenced building in Bilytske. Volume is heavily concentrated on the May 2026 deadline, with earlier dates drawing minimal interest. Resolution requires confirmed ISW map shading — specifically 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Assessed Russian Advance', or 'Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours' — persisting through one full update cycle. DeepState Map serves as a fallback source if ISW becomes unavailable.

Background

Bilytske is a settlement in Donetsk Oblast situated in an area that has seen sustained ground combat as Russian forces have pushed westward and southward across eastern Ukraine since 2022. The broader Donetsk front has been one of the most actively contested stretches of the conflict, with incremental advances measured in individual streets, tree lines, and structures. The ISW — Institute for the Study of War — publishes daily updated control maps used widely by analysts, journalists, and prediction markets as a standardised reference for territorial change. Targeting a specific building at a named coordinate reflects the granular, slow-moving nature of urban and peri-urban fighting in this theatre, where control of individual structures can take weeks or months to shift and is frequently contested before being confirmed.

Key factors

The primary driver of resolution is the pace of Russian ground advance toward the specific coordinate in Bilytske. Factors that could accelerate capture include attrition of Ukrainian defensive positions in the surrounding area, redeployment of forces following activity elsewhere on the Donetsk front, and logistical pressure on Ukrainian supply lines. Factors that could delay or prevent capture include Ukrainian reinforcement, counter-offensive action recapturing nearby positions, or the stabilisation of front lines through ceasefire negotiations. The resolution criteria introduce a procedural dependency: even if Russian forces physically occupy the building, the ISW map must reflect that control and the shading must survive a full update cycle. ISW's assessment methodology — which distinguishes between infiltration, advance, and confirmed control — means tactical presence does not automatically qualify. A negotiated settlement granting Russia de jure and de facto control of the area would also trigger a Yes resolution, independent of ISW map status.

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